Predictions for 2004 (1/4/04)
by Dean Hartwell
What can we expect from the world of politics in 2004? Here are my thoughts on that subject:
The Democratic primaries will result in Howard Dean claiming enough delegates for the nomination shortly after several states cast their votes in the middle of February. After several months of deliberating, Dean will announce Wesley Clark as his running mate around the time of the convention in Boston this summer. Clark, despite his recent comments to the contrary, will accept this position.
By choosing a running mate from the South (Clark is from Arkansas), former Vermont Governor Dean will try to shore up support in Southern states.
The electoral math of winning the White House demands such a strategy, as over half of the needed 270 electoral votes can be found in that region of the nation where Democrats did so poorly in 2000.
On the other side, President Bush’s strategy centers on the number two: there are two issues on which he must convince the public that he has performed favorably. They are the war in Iraq and the economy.
United States troops continue to be killed in Iraq on an almost-daily basis. They will continue to die at a high rate despite the recent capture of Saddam Hussein.
Attempts to “democratize” Iraq will fail in 2004. The process by which a nation transforms from a dictatorship to a democracy takes time. It has also never happened as a direct result of a United States’ invasion of the nation.
The weapons of mass destruction will not be found. That prediction does not require a crystal ball since the weapons never existed to begin with. Dean will use this issue as a weapon in his campaign, pointing out that WMDs were one of Bush’s stated reasons for going to war with Iraq.
As for the economy, the news will be mixed. On the plus side, the Gross National Product will continue to post gains in 2004. Bush will use the numbers as part of his campaign.
On the other hand, despite these gains, the Bush Administration will still have a negative number for net jobs created. The Economist’s projection of 50,000 created jobs per month of this year leaves Bush over two million short of even.
The Dean/Clark ticket will fight against Bush/Cheney’s use of the issues of “God, Guns and Gays” in an attempt to portray the Democratic ticket as too far to the left of the mainstream. This smear attack will resemble Richard Nixon’s use of the phrase “Acid, Amnesty and Abortion” to attack his opponent, George McGovern, in 1972.
Bush will emphasize his own personal faith as a way to portray Dean as anti-religion, or worse yet, anti-God. These attacks will wear off since Dean claims personal faith, but simply chooses not to speak much of it. Bush will also discover that Dean supports the Brady bill and background checks on those who wish to purchase guns (http://www.deanforamerica.com/site/PageServer?pagename=policy_statement_civilrights_sensiblegunlaws) but attempts to make headway on this issue will falter since most voters agree with Dean.
That leaves the issue of gay rights as a “wedge” issue. Bush has gone as far as to call for a constitutional amendment outlawing gay marriage whereas Dean has supported gay rights in general, including his singing of civil unions for gays (http://www.deanforamerica.com/site/PageServer?pagename=policy_statement_lgbt).
The result of the election will depend upon the voters’ perception of the so-called “culture war” in the United States. Exit polls in the 2000 election showed that voters who attend church regularly voted for Bush and those who did not attend church regularly voted for Al Gore. Those who go to church as a group lean toward opposition to gay rights, whereas those who don’t tend to support them.
Unfortunately, with all of the talk we will hear about emotional issues like gay rights, other important issues will be overshadowed. Health care, the environment and even the economy may take a back seat in this cultural battle. The result in the presidential contest will then become which side can persuade its followers to vote based on emotional issues. But, as unfair as that sounds, it is better than having the courts decide it.
Editor's Note: I had the right idea that a candidate would dominate the Democratic primaries, but I picked the wrong candidate. It now (2/16/04) looks as though John Kerry, not Howard Dean, will win the nomination handily.