by Dean Hartwell
The day after the Republican victory in
the recent midterm elections, some in the news media ran the results of
hypothetical presidential candidate match-ups in 2004. The polls may have
interested some who watched but they hardly qualified as news.
Where was the news about the last elections?
With so many politicians and analysts “spinning” the election returns to give
their party the best face, I found it hard to tell. However, some facts emerge
as especially relevant:
The Republicans now hold 51 Senate seats. As long as all party members
toe the line, President Bush can get the Senate to pass his bills.
Why is this fact significant?
Jean Carnahan, a Democrat who voted with President Bush 80 percent of the time,
lost her Senate seat, in part, because the president campaigned heavily against
her. Now that there is no incentive for Democrats to cooperate with Bush,
the president should count his Democratic votes carefully.
Furthermore, not all Republicans are solidly in line with the Bush
Administration agenda. Senator Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, for
example, voted against the permanent repeal of the estate tax (a Bush priority)
and hinted he would go independent if it would make the Democrats the majority
party again. Having lost Senator James Jeffords of
To keep his Senate coalition together, Bush must keep both the conservative and
moderate wings of his party happy. Most of the GOP in the Senate stand behind the president on issues like his tax cuts.
But not all likely support President Bush’s desire to put more
conservative judges like Clarence Thomas on federal benches. Nor do all
support drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, as Bush does.
That brings me to the other fact: Republicans now have a majority in the
House and Senate and control the White House. If Bush keeps his party
together and passes the laws he wants, he will probably win reelection.
If not, he will have only his party and himself to blame.