Perspective on Politics

by Dean T. Hartwell

Poll Results

Winner noted in bold

February 2003

What will happen to Iraq?:

 

Hussein will flee - 4%

U.S. will arrange safe haven for Hussein - 0%

U.S. will defeat Iraq in a war - 59%

U.S. will lose to Iraq in a war - 13%

Iraq will comply with all U.S. demands, avoiding war - 4%

None of the above - 18%

 

Editor's Note: The U.S. defeated Iraq in a war but now faces difficulty with the insurgents.

 

January 2003

Which of these events will take place in 2003 (you may vote for more than one)?

 

"Vice President Cheney Resigns, Cites Health" - 19%

"United States Invades Iraq" - 38%

"Venezuelan President Chavez Flees Nation" - 6%

"Rehnquist and O'Connor Quit Supreme Court" - 22%

"Senator Chafee Leaves GOP, Becomes Independent" - 12%

 

Editor's Note: The United States invaded Iraq.

 

December 2002

Which of the following book topics interests you the most?

 

Modern re-write of the United States Constitution - 0%

Real winners of close presidential elections - 0%

Ending United States dependency upon automobiles - 21%

Problems caused by overpopulation - 21%

How fear influences decisions leaders make - 35%

Other - 21%

 

November 2002

What would you like to change about elections? (You may choose more than one)

 

Use Instant to Runoff Voting - 17%

Abolish Political Action Committees (PACs) - 21%

Allow unlimited individual contributions - 0%

Make commercials subject to truth laws - 17%

Ban polls close to Election Day - 13%

Publicly finance campaigns - 26%

Let candidates represent more than one party - 4%

 

October 2002

If the United States goes to war with Iraq, how long will war last?

Respondents assumed for the sake of argument that the United States will go to war with Iraq.  They chose the amount of time they believed the war will last.  Choices range from 1 week to over one year.

1 week - 9%

2 weeks - 4%

1 month - 14%

3 months - 4%

6 months - 9%

1 year - 4%

More than 1 year - 52%

 

Editor's Note: The war lasted approximately three weeks.

 

September 2002

Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) allows voters to select more than one candidate for an office in order of preference. In what order would you select George W. Bush, Al Gore and Ralph Nader?

 

In this poll, respondents chose by order of preference among three possible presidential candidates, George W. Bush, Al Gore and Ralph Nader.  The voting system, called Instant Runoff Voting, or IRV, ensures that the winner will receive a majority of votes since second and even third preference votes are added to the first preferences.

 

1st preference votes

Bush - 20%

Gore - 42%

Nader - 38%

 

Since no one received a majority of first preference votes, the candidate with the least amount of them (Bush) is eliminated.  Ballots showing Bush as the first preference are checked for second preference votes:

 

2nd preference votes added to 1st preference

Gore - 42% + 17% = 59%

Nader - 38% + 3% = 41%

 

Now we have someone who got more than 50%, Al Gore.

 

August 2002

45 million people in the U.S. do not have health insurance.  Say the government could pay for their insurance by raising everyone's taxes by up to 10%.  What percentage of your income would you agree to pay?

 

0 percent - 17%

1 percent - 7%

2 percent - 0%

3 percent - 3%

4 percent - 3%

5 percent - 17%

6 percent - 7%

7 percent - 0%

8 percent - 0%

9 percent - 0%

10 percent - 42%

 

(By multiplying the response percentages by their respective portion of the vote, I come out with an aggregate response of 5.75%.  The government would then add a tax of 5.75% to cover health insurance for as many uninsured taxpayers as possible.  See more details in Ongoing Issues - Health Insurance).

July 2002
Which possible amendment to our Constitution do you most support?

Term Limits for Congress - 23%
Equal Rights Amendment - 20%
Abolition of the Income Tax - 19%
Outlaw abortion - 16%
Balance budget - 13%
Crime victim rights - 3%
Presidential 3rd term - 2%
Prohibit flag burning - 1%

June 2002
Which of the following events will happen first?

Embargo on Cuba ends - 43%
Person who is not a white male becomes president - 26%
Equal Rights Amendment to Constitution passes - 14%
Third party replaces Democrats or Republicans - 7%
Texas outlaws death penalty - 7%

May 2002
What policy should the Bush Administration have for Israel and Palestine (voters could choose more than one)?

Pursue a cease-fire - 35%
Demand a state for Palestine - 31%
Stay out of it - 26%
Support Israel with weapons - 24%
Look for a replacement for Arafat - 19%
Offer U.S. territory to the side that will move - 9%
Support Palestine with weapons - 6%

April 2002
What is the largest sum of money that you have ever contributed to a candidate for office?

0 - 34%
$1 - $25 - 13%
$26 - $50 - 17%
$51 - $100 - 17%
$101 - $500 - 8%
$501 - $1000 - 0%
>$1000 - 8%

March 2002
Truth Matters profiles these eight candidates. Who is your favorite?

Bill Clinton - 30%
George W. Bush - 24%
Ronald Reagan - 16%
Al Gore - 8%
Other - 8%
George H. W. Bush - 6%
Michael Dukakis - 3%
John B. Anderson - 1%
Jerry Brown - 1%